The probability that there are planets with civilizations superior to human civilization.
Quote from Kai Chan Andrew on 01/22/2026, 10:53 pmThe probability of a planet like Earth forming by chance is so extraordinarily slim on an individual planetary system scale, far rarer than winning the lottery, that it is almost negligible. According to the latest astronomical research, the odds of a Sun like star having a planet roughly Earth's size in its habitable zone, where water could exist, stand at about 20%, suggesting over 10 billion such Earth like planets in our Milky Way galaxy alone. However, factoring in Earth's unique features, like a protective magnetic field, plate tectonics, the right atmospheric composition, and a large moon like ours, drops the probability to under 0.01%, shrinking the number of truly Earth twin planets in our galaxy to just a few million. Yet, when we scale this up to the observable universe, with its staggering 10^22 stars (that is 700 sextillion), the equation flips entirely: despite the minuscule odds for any single system, the sheer number of trials across cosmic history makes the existence of Earth like planets somewhere out there mathematically approach 100%. In essence, Earth is a miraculous fluke at 0.00...01% odds individually, but the universe's vastness turns that rarity into an inevitability.
In this context, the probability of planets hosting civilizations more advanced than current human society comes out to at least 60 to 90% or higher across the entire universe, based on models like the Drake Equation that project an overwhelming expected number of technological civilizations on a cosmic scale. Playfully pushing the probabilities further, for super advanced civilizations capable of mastering space time travel, like wormholes or faster than light tech, the odds of at least one such society existing somewhere, sometime, hit roughly 70 to 99% if we conservatively assume only 1 in a billion technological civilizations reaches that level amid billions of total civilizations universe wide. Extending this to god like civilizations that could engineer human cells from scratch and infuse them with spiritual energy still yields over 50% odds even under ultra pessimistic assumptions, like just 1 in 10 billion civilizations achieving it. Even for civilizations with AI models vastly superior to ours, it is a no brainer: since humanity's AI is already late stage tech tree territory, among the millions to billions of cosmic civilizations, assuming just 1 in a million develops superintelligent AI pushes the existence probability to over 80% with ease. These mathematical insights reveal how, in a universe brimming with infinite stars, planets, and time, even the rarest events become statistically inevitable.
In conclusion, Earth may be a near miraculous 0.00...01% fluke on its own, but the universe's immensity makes the existence of Earth like worlds elsewhere a near certainty. From the universe's perspective, humanity is merely borrowing a speck of space and a fleeting moment in an expanse of vast emptiness and near infinite time.
The probability of a planet like Earth forming by chance is so extraordinarily slim on an individual planetary system scale, far rarer than winning the lottery, that it is almost negligible. According to the latest astronomical research, the odds of a Sun like star having a planet roughly Earth's size in its habitable zone, where water could exist, stand at about 20%, suggesting over 10 billion such Earth like planets in our Milky Way galaxy alone. However, factoring in Earth's unique features, like a protective magnetic field, plate tectonics, the right atmospheric composition, and a large moon like ours, drops the probability to under 0.01%, shrinking the number of truly Earth twin planets in our galaxy to just a few million. Yet, when we scale this up to the observable universe, with its staggering 10^22 stars (that is 700 sextillion), the equation flips entirely: despite the minuscule odds for any single system, the sheer number of trials across cosmic history makes the existence of Earth like planets somewhere out there mathematically approach 100%. In essence, Earth is a miraculous fluke at 0.00...01% odds individually, but the universe's vastness turns that rarity into an inevitability.
In this context, the probability of planets hosting civilizations more advanced than current human society comes out to at least 60 to 90% or higher across the entire universe, based on models like the Drake Equation that project an overwhelming expected number of technological civilizations on a cosmic scale. Playfully pushing the probabilities further, for super advanced civilizations capable of mastering space time travel, like wormholes or faster than light tech, the odds of at least one such society existing somewhere, sometime, hit roughly 70 to 99% if we conservatively assume only 1 in a billion technological civilizations reaches that level amid billions of total civilizations universe wide. Extending this to god like civilizations that could engineer human cells from scratch and infuse them with spiritual energy still yields over 50% odds even under ultra pessimistic assumptions, like just 1 in 10 billion civilizations achieving it. Even for civilizations with AI models vastly superior to ours, it is a no brainer: since humanity's AI is already late stage tech tree territory, among the millions to billions of cosmic civilizations, assuming just 1 in a million develops superintelligent AI pushes the existence probability to over 80% with ease. These mathematical insights reveal how, in a universe brimming with infinite stars, planets, and time, even the rarest events become statistically inevitable.
In conclusion, Earth may be a near miraculous 0.00...01% fluke on its own, but the universe's immensity makes the existence of Earth like worlds elsewhere a near certainty. From the universe's perspective, humanity is merely borrowing a speck of space and a fleeting moment in an expanse of vast emptiness and near infinite time.